20 Year history of the S&P 500:
Despite all the choppiness, clear periods of up trends and down trends are evident.
In the past 2 major secular bear markets (1930s and 1970s) the market took 15 years to exceed its prior highs. Assuming 2000 marked the high tide mark of this secular bear, it would not be outrageous to assume we are in for another 5 years of up and down choppiness before a decisive breakout to higher ground. Of course, in there, there will be plenty of tradable rallies and declines.
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