Friday, October 21, 2011

Market rally continues: SPY (123.97) gaps up across resistance

Friday 10/21/11 after market close.


This chart shows SPY breaking above both its 20-day trailing high and clearing the last two relative highs in the 122.5 area.   After a choppy week in which most of the action was in the upper quartile of the 20-day range, the market gapped higher and closed at its highs for the day, all bullish.  The only caveat was that volume was only average.


I feel particularly proud of this chart.  After banging the table a couple days ago about all of the bullish features of the homebuilders (XHB), I took a position and there was very nice follow-through today, again on above-average volume.  A 4% surge with no resistance in sight is a very good sign, especially after the failed bear trap in October (a breakdown below the 20-day low without any follow-through and a quick rally off the lows.  


The Euro is doing what it is supposed to do - rallying after its breakout then consolidation after falling back into its range.  It would be nice to see it close decisively above the breakout point, however.


Switzerland also had a nice day, rising 2.76% in dollar terms (versus a 1.90% for the SPY).  Switzerland sold off quite a bit more than the United States from peak to trough (June to September - about a 30% loss), so I would expect a more spirited rise.  Switzerland is in much better fiscal shape (the government is running a surplus) and its economy is by many measures much stronger than the United States.

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