Wednesday, May 22, 2013

S&P 500 looking toppy - took profits today midday








It was a violation of my normal approach but from time to time enough signals come along that justify jumping the gun and getting out a few percentage points higher:
   - the market was up sharply during the day then gave it all back, dropping to about break-even (at which point I took profits in all open positions except one in Japan); this was essentially a key reversal, where the market made a new relative high then closed lower;
   - volume was very heavy, indicating distribution;
   - the recent run-up was relatively unbroken and strong; I always get nervous when the market goes my way too quickly and easily for too long... when some get the idea of heading for the exits, everyone will and that is where they will find the bodies.



Of course, it's possible the market will turn higher and I will regret having sold, but if so, I can always re-enter, even if at a worse price.  For now, it's been a nice run and we are entering a period of seasonal weakness.


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