S&P 500 Update Wednesday May 11, 2011
After exiting prematurely in mid-March, thinking I was quite smart when the market subsequently dipped to the 125 area (on the SPY), the market then rebounded up to the 134 area, where it met resistance at its late February high then sold off, only to gap up in late April, take out the high, and march to within spitting distance of 138.
As I mentioned before the market - and any system based on following the trend of the market - tends to be smarter than I am, so overriding a system (I did not take the signal to re-buy the market in late March when it penetrated its 20-day high) is usually a bad idea. What makes it particularly hard is watching from the sidelines as the market moves higher without you in it. At some point, you would be tempted to jump back in at a higher price - often just in time for the market to move down and stop you out.
This time I waited and although there are signs that the market has some underlying strength, there are also many caution signals:
- Volume on down days has been heavier than volume on up days, although not as dramatically so as in the March distribution period and the most recent down volume was less than the up volume day of 4 trading days ago;
- Trend Line A from the November lows was broken and the market has been trading below an extension of this trend line;
- the market had a nice, solid, profitable advance from its breakout in late 2010; profitable signals tend statistically to be followed by unprofitable ones;
- seasonality - we are now entering a relatively weak May-October period but it is a presidential pre-election year, the most bullish of the 4-year cycle;
- failure to challenge or even match the recent high of 137.18.
Some bullish signs (nothing is ever 100%):
- Most of the market action is above the breakout point of 134, the prior resistance, possible support now;
- The gap up around April 18 has not yet been filled;
- the market trades above its 50 day and 150 day moving averages, and the former is above the latter.
So it's an ambiguous market looking vulnerable to the downside. The system says buy though, so we should be long with a sell stop at 129.51, to be moved up soon to the 133 area…
Gold (GLD @ 146.54) looks very weak here. Long down bars on heavy volume breaking an intermediate uptrend line, weak rally to below the halfway mark of the selloff, then apparent resumption of the downtrend. I sold yesterday at the open. Will probably have a better re-entry point later. No reason to be greedy.
The Euro (FXE @ 141.49) is also under heavy pressure. Sold yesterday at open to take advantage of 1-day counter-rally. Same comments for gold apply to the Euro with the addition that FXE is much closer to its 20 day low which would give a non-negotiable sell signal (at 140.98), and not only were there two thrust days down but the first was on a gap with both on heavy volume.
After exiting prematurely in mid-March, thinking I was quite smart when the market subsequently dipped to the 125 area (on the SPY), the market then rebounded up to the 134 area, where it met resistance at its late February high then sold off, only to gap up in late April, take out the high, and march to within spitting distance of 138.
As I mentioned before the market - and any system based on following the trend of the market - tends to be smarter than I am, so overriding a system (I did not take the signal to re-buy the market in late March when it penetrated its 20-day high) is usually a bad idea. What makes it particularly hard is watching from the sidelines as the market moves higher without you in it. At some point, you would be tempted to jump back in at a higher price - often just in time for the market to move down and stop you out.
This time I waited and although there are signs that the market has some underlying strength, there are also many caution signals:
- Volume on down days has been heavier than volume on up days, although not as dramatically so as in the March distribution period and the most recent down volume was less than the up volume day of 4 trading days ago;
- Trend Line A from the November lows was broken and the market has been trading below an extension of this trend line;
- the market had a nice, solid, profitable advance from its breakout in late 2010; profitable signals tend statistically to be followed by unprofitable ones;
- seasonality - we are now entering a relatively weak May-October period but it is a presidential pre-election year, the most bullish of the 4-year cycle;
- failure to challenge or even match the recent high of 137.18.
Some bullish signs (nothing is ever 100%):
- Most of the market action is above the breakout point of 134, the prior resistance, possible support now;
- The gap up around April 18 has not yet been filled;
- the market trades above its 50 day and 150 day moving averages, and the former is above the latter.
So it's an ambiguous market looking vulnerable to the downside. The system says buy though, so we should be long with a sell stop at 129.51, to be moved up soon to the 133 area…
Gold (GLD @ 146.54) looks very weak here. Long down bars on heavy volume breaking an intermediate uptrend line, weak rally to below the halfway mark of the selloff, then apparent resumption of the downtrend. I sold yesterday at the open. Will probably have a better re-entry point later. No reason to be greedy.
The Euro (FXE @ 141.49) is also under heavy pressure. Sold yesterday at open to take advantage of 1-day counter-rally. Same comments for gold apply to the Euro with the addition that FXE is much closer to its 20 day low which would give a non-negotiable sell signal (at 140.98), and not only were there two thrust days down but the first was on a gap with both on heavy volume.
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