Monday, March 21, 2011

S&P 500 Follow-up: rally attempt seems to be stalling; Euro (FXE) and Gold (GLD) look bullish.

Monday, March 21, 2011 (SPY @ 127.76 as of Friday's close):  The sell signal continues to be confirmed in the S&P 500 as evidenced by:

 - failure to rally up to the break-down point, then closing on the lows of the day when this area was approached;
 - much lower volume on the two past up-days than during the prior 2 down days;  this trend of higher volume on down days than up days (indicating distribution or selling) has been occurring since late February;
 - failure to rally to the mid-point of the 4-week trading range (dotted green line below);
 - failure to approach the 50-day moving average, and 6 closes below over the past 7 trading sessions.



Where in the world looks interesting right now?  The Euro (FXE) has been breaking out after consolidating in the upper part of its trading range following a breakout at 134 in mid-January.  The gap up is very bullish, although volume is not overly impressive.  A key test will come in the 142 area, the site of a spike high and stalled rally in November (a bull trap):


FXE's sell stop should be placed at 135.20.
Gold also looks interesting, as though setting itself up to move higher:



Gold's sell-stop should be placed at 134.47.

Note that the last two are essentially bearish plays on the US Dollar.

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