Spiders are in a buy state since about 129.50 triggered early August. Sell stop is at 123.42 (20 day low) but a rising trend line connecting the lows from the mid-July 120 low is currently at
128. The spiders (SPY) violated this trend line and traded as low as 126 and change last week before rallying to close the week at 129.7.
Negative signs are that the spiders have not yet attained their most recent highs of 131.51 and the up volume was lower than down volume. Spiders trade above the 50 day moving average (128) but far below the 150 day (132.9).
Spiders sold off from a high of 144 in mid-May to 120 in mid-July, a decline of 17%. A sell signal from 137 would have been profitable with an exit at around 129.5, a short profit of about
6%.
Gold eye shares (GLD) remain in a sell state since 90. They are currently at 81.2 after a recent spike high to above 84. They gapped up and then gapped down and looked headed toward their
recent lows of 76.61. A buy signal would not be given until 92, their 20 day trailing high.
The 50 day is below the 150 day moving average (88 below 90).
Volume on recent up days has slighlty exceeded volume on down days.
Homebuilders ETF.
Homebuilders ETF is looking bullish. At 19, it's punched above its recent 20 day high of 19.24 only to settle back to 17.5, before rallying the last 2 trading days to 19.. Note it is in a buy
state since 18.75 in mid-July. After exceeding this amount, it pulled back into its trading range, formed a flag in the upper end of it, and seems to have broken out again. The most recent
low is at 16, about 3 points of risk (15%).
The 4 week low jumped to 16.1 from 13.8.
XLY, consumer discretionary spiders, have stalled a bit following their decisive breakout, pulling back from a high of 32 to a recent low of 29.4 before closing the week at 30.7.
Current buy state is long since 29.9 or so, following a protracted decline from a high of 33.5 as recently as May. It declined from 33.5 to 26.0, its mid-July low. Sell stop is at 27.7, 3 points
(10 per cent) away.
XLP, consumer staples spider, continue to surge higher after breaking out at 27.5, now at 29.7 with a 20 day low of 26.9 after a pullback to just above 28 last week.
XLV, health care spiders, are at 33.3, since a break-out at around 31.4 in early July. 4 week low is at 31.6, about 6% away, bringing the most recent trade to breakeven or better.
Up volume was much better than down volume but this has changed in the past few days.
XLF, the financials, broke a rising short term trendline after stalling three times in the 23 area. They sold off to below 20 before surging 3.8 per cent to 20.7 on Friday. They
had earlier broken a downtrend line that bought them from 28 in May to below 17 in mid-July, a 40 per cent decline, but the chart has turned more bearish; a 20 day low stop was triggered
at about 19.7. There was a dramatic 6-day surge from 17 to 23 (35% rise) in July, but the financial spiders then settled back to the middle of the range (20) before forming what looks like a
flag with a low of 21 and high of 22.5. They are currently in a buy state since 22.5 and closed Friday at 21.36. Volume is ambiguous but slightly better on recent up than down days.
Ecks Ell Bee, the materials spiders remain in a sell state and downtrend since their high over 46 in May. They closed at 39.75 on Friday, 14% off their peak, with a flag in the upper end of
their trading range. Their sell state is short since just below 43 with a buy stop just above 41.
XLU, utitilities, are also in a down state with a flag below the most recent range which was however broken to the upside. They were at 41.5 in June, but a sell signal was given at
just above 40. The current close of 37.9 and change translates into an 8% open profit in this short trade.
XLI, industrial spiders are also in a buy state, since a dramatic decline from 40 to 32.5 from May to mid-July. Most recent buy signal was at 35.4. Sell signal at 33.7.
Are Ess Ecks, Market Vectors Russia, remains very bearish, since a short signal from 54.5. At 39.5, Russia is trading close to its 20 day low of 38.7. Volume is much heavier on down
days, indicating a possible selling climax in this case. But stop is at 45.9 and plunging.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stock Market and Sectors Update
Stock charts update August 19th, 2008
Spiders are in a buy state since about 129.50 triggered around August 8th. Sell stop is at 123.42 (20 day low) but a rising trend line connecting the lows from the mid-July 120 low is
currently at 128. This short-term uptrend line was violated and the Spiders are currently at 126.99, down 2 and a half points since the 129.5 buy signal. Risk is 3.5 points away.
Spiders sold off from a high of 144 in mid-May to 120 in mid-July, a decline of 17%. A sell signal from 137 would have been profitable with an exit at around 129.5, a short profit of about
6%.
Gold eye shares remain in a sell state since 90. They are currently at 80.4 after a strong Tuesday rally. Volume was lower than on down days, however. They were trading below their May lows down to almost 76 after gapping down.
A buy signal would not be given until 95.86, their 20 day trailing high.
The 50 day is below the 150 day moving average (88.8 below 90.0).
Volume on recent down days has greatly exceeded volume on up days.
Homebuilders.
Homebuilders are looking weaker after what seemed a promisng breakout. At 17.8, it fell below its mid-range after earlier breakding out at a recent 20 day high of 19.24. Note it is in a buy state since 18.75 in mid-July. After exceeding this amount, it pulled back into its trading range, formed a flag in the upper end of it, and seems to have broken out again then fallen back. The most recent low is at 16.1, about 1.7 points of risk (10%).
The 4 week low jumped to 16.1 from 13.8. A short-term uptrend line was broken.
Ecks Ell Why, consumer discretionary spiders, have followed through on their decisive breakout, after pulling back from a high of 32 to a recent low of 30 before closing last week at 31.2, then pulling back to 30.1 on Tuesday. A short-term uptrend line remains intact. They continue to trade about the middle of their range, although just barely. Sell stop is at 27.7, 2.4 points away.
This chart seems more bullish than the homebuilders'. Current buy state is long since 29.9 or so, following a protracted decline from a high of 33.5 as recently as May. It declined from 33.5
to 26.0, its mid-July low.
Ecks Ell Pee, consumer staples spider, continue to surge higher after breaking out at 27.5, now at 28.5 with a 20 day low of 26.8. Strongest of the charts in this recent pullback.
Ecks Ell Vee, health care spiders, are at 33.2, since a break-out at around 31.4 in early July. 4 week low is at 31, 10% away, but will soon climb to the 31.6 area, only 6% away, bringing the
most recent trade to breakeven or better. Up volume much better than down volume.
Ecks Ell Foxtrot, the financials, seem to have broken out to the downside again after failing to launch following the break of the downtrend line that bought them from 28 in May to below 17 in mid-July, a 40 per cent decline. There was a dramatic 6-day surge from 17 to 23 (35% rise) in July.
They just triggered a sell state at 19.75 (they are trading at 19.9). It looks as though they want to test their lows of 17.
Ecks Ell Bee, the materials spiders remain in a sell state and downtrend since their high over 46 in May. They closed at 38.75 on Friday, 15% off their peak, with a flag in the lower end
of their trading range. Their sell state is short since just below 43 with a buy stop just above 41.
Ecks Ell You, utitilities, are also in a down state with a flag below the most recent range. They were at 41.5 in June, but a sell signal was given at just above 40. The current close of 37 and
change translates into a 10% open profit in this short trade. The 20 day high is at 39.6 but will no doubt come down dramatically in the next few days - the high of the most recent flag is at
37.5, and the flag prior to that is above 38.5.
Ecks Ell Eye, industrial spiders are also in a buy state, since a dramatic decline from 40 to 32.5 from May to mid-July. Most recent buy signal was at 35.4. Sell signal at 33.57, up dramatically from 32 just a few days ago.
Russia, by the way, as represented by the Market Vectors ETF, ticker Romeo Sierra Ecks, is selling off brutally. After a peak of 59 in May, a sell signal at 54.5 in June was issued that would still have you short at 39.2, a decline of over 33.5 per cent, and an open profit of 28.5 per cent. Up volume greatly exceeds down volume. Interestingly, the Are Ess Ecks was selling off on heavy volume in late July, prior to the invasion of Ossetia. The gap down today was on very heavy volume.
Stay tuned.
Spiders are in a buy state since about 129.50 triggered around August 8th. Sell stop is at 123.42 (20 day low) but a rising trend line connecting the lows from the mid-July 120 low is
currently at 128. This short-term uptrend line was violated and the Spiders are currently at 126.99, down 2 and a half points since the 129.5 buy signal. Risk is 3.5 points away.
Spiders sold off from a high of 144 in mid-May to 120 in mid-July, a decline of 17%. A sell signal from 137 would have been profitable with an exit at around 129.5, a short profit of about
6%.
Gold eye shares remain in a sell state since 90. They are currently at 80.4 after a strong Tuesday rally. Volume was lower than on down days, however. They were trading below their May lows down to almost 76 after gapping down.
A buy signal would not be given until 95.86, their 20 day trailing high.
The 50 day is below the 150 day moving average (88.8 below 90.0).
Volume on recent down days has greatly exceeded volume on up days.
Homebuilders.
Homebuilders are looking weaker after what seemed a promisng breakout. At 17.8, it fell below its mid-range after earlier breakding out at a recent 20 day high of 19.24. Note it is in a buy state since 18.75 in mid-July. After exceeding this amount, it pulled back into its trading range, formed a flag in the upper end of it, and seems to have broken out again then fallen back. The most recent low is at 16.1, about 1.7 points of risk (10%).
The 4 week low jumped to 16.1 from 13.8. A short-term uptrend line was broken.
Ecks Ell Why, consumer discretionary spiders, have followed through on their decisive breakout, after pulling back from a high of 32 to a recent low of 30 before closing last week at 31.2, then pulling back to 30.1 on Tuesday. A short-term uptrend line remains intact. They continue to trade about the middle of their range, although just barely. Sell stop is at 27.7, 2.4 points away.
This chart seems more bullish than the homebuilders'. Current buy state is long since 29.9 or so, following a protracted decline from a high of 33.5 as recently as May. It declined from 33.5
to 26.0, its mid-July low.
Ecks Ell Pee, consumer staples spider, continue to surge higher after breaking out at 27.5, now at 28.5 with a 20 day low of 26.8. Strongest of the charts in this recent pullback.
Ecks Ell Vee, health care spiders, are at 33.2, since a break-out at around 31.4 in early July. 4 week low is at 31, 10% away, but will soon climb to the 31.6 area, only 6% away, bringing the
most recent trade to breakeven or better. Up volume much better than down volume.
Ecks Ell Foxtrot, the financials, seem to have broken out to the downside again after failing to launch following the break of the downtrend line that bought them from 28 in May to below 17 in mid-July, a 40 per cent decline. There was a dramatic 6-day surge from 17 to 23 (35% rise) in July.
They just triggered a sell state at 19.75 (they are trading at 19.9). It looks as though they want to test their lows of 17.
Ecks Ell Bee, the materials spiders remain in a sell state and downtrend since their high over 46 in May. They closed at 38.75 on Friday, 15% off their peak, with a flag in the lower end
of their trading range. Their sell state is short since just below 43 with a buy stop just above 41.
Ecks Ell You, utitilities, are also in a down state with a flag below the most recent range. They were at 41.5 in June, but a sell signal was given at just above 40. The current close of 37 and
change translates into a 10% open profit in this short trade. The 20 day high is at 39.6 but will no doubt come down dramatically in the next few days - the high of the most recent flag is at
37.5, and the flag prior to that is above 38.5.
Ecks Ell Eye, industrial spiders are also in a buy state, since a dramatic decline from 40 to 32.5 from May to mid-July. Most recent buy signal was at 35.4. Sell signal at 33.57, up dramatically from 32 just a few days ago.
Russia, by the way, as represented by the Market Vectors ETF, ticker Romeo Sierra Ecks, is selling off brutally. After a peak of 59 in May, a sell signal at 54.5 in June was issued that would still have you short at 39.2, a decline of over 33.5 per cent, and an open profit of 28.5 per cent. Up volume greatly exceeds down volume. Interestingly, the Are Ess Ecks was selling off on heavy volume in late July, prior to the invasion of Ossetia. The gap down today was on very heavy volume.
Stay tuned.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
SPY Update 8/5/08 (SPY @ 128.36) buy stop if market exceeds 129.15
8/5/2008
Market update: SPY remains in a sell state at 128.36 since a 136.5 sell signal in mid-May (6% open profit). The market has had a nice run down (if you were short) and l The action remains sloppy, however, with a sell stop just above 129.15. ooks as though it's trying to form at least an intermediate term bottom.
Positives: the market is probably short-term oversold, sentiment is very negative, volume on up days has recently been somewhat stronger than volume on down days.
Negatives: the fundamental situation remains atrocious although it often does until 6 months after a bear market bottom, the market has failed to make a 20 day or 4 week high and there is the possibility that the action since mid-July has been a wide, sloppy flag pattern, which is more often a continuation than a reversal pattern.
At any rate, the market does not require clairvoyance, only adaptability. If the market closes above 129.15 and follows through, buy. Often the first buy signal following a protracted decline is a fake-out, but that's OK since risk is pre-defined - I would sell if the market broke below 125.
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