The SPY (97.65) has rallied over 20% since the buy signal issued at 80 in mid-March, when the trailing 20 day high was violated. Technically, the market should have been sold at 87.5 when the trailing 20 day low was violated to the downside, but that is the nice thing about being too busy to monitor these things too closely - it turned out to be a false sell signal (which is very bullish, by the way, and you could have reversed shortly thereafter or waited for the formal reentry signal and given up a few points. As Jesse Livermore once said, it's not the chasing of every tick that makes you money but "just sitting still" and riding the big moves up.
I don't know when this rally will end and either does anyone else, but even a market agnostic can make plenty of money by riding the tide in and out.
I don't know the fundamentals and don't care much. I know our country is in much better hands in every sense of the word - credibility, integrity, transparency, fiscal restraint, accountability, and ability to learn from mistakes - than we were under the last disastrous administration, whose debts from Enron to Worldcom to the invasion of Iraq to the systematic defunding of our infrastructure from schools to levees to bridges as wealth was shifted from the workers to the hedge fund managers. Eventually that will show up in the markets, as the price tag for cleaning up this mess is being absorbed by adults who don't believe in tooth fairies or the magic of tax cuts and deregulation to solve all our problems (and pay for themselves).
Expect some ugly headlines about the deficit, joblessness, the price of providing healthcare for all citizens (unless that effort stalls)), but it's all noise. Turn down the volume and watch the markets. They have an interesting story to tell and you don't have to guess the ending to profit!
