S&P 500 (SPY @ 126.26) rally looks vulnerable

S&P 500 (SPY @ 126.26) rally looks vulnerable
Wed 7 Dec 2011 before the market open


If you view a chart from left to right  as a sort of motion picture, you can sometimes envision - with a little imagination and squinted eyes - price as a rocket (or a brick) attempting to take off (or starting to plunge).   The analogy breaks down because there is no equivalent of ground, a final resting place, where all the kinetic energy of the object is spent, but at times, you can almost hear the groaning of the imaginary ground control crew as the rocket slows its ascent, stalls, then begins to sink back toward its launching point.  
It's possible we are at such a point now.  I have annotated in red some of the most salient bearish factors:
 - an apparent stalling just where you would expect if a rally were to fail - below intermediate term resistance at around 130, as well as a longer-term (but somewhat more imaginative, hence suspect) trendline connecting all the peaks since July;
In blue, I have annotated the bullish features:
 - strong support at 110 (limiting risk somewhat if the rally fails);
 - two unfilled gaps up with follow-through;
 - most of the price action is in the top half of the trading range.
In black, I have indicated the most troublesome but still neutral indicator:
 - volume on up days, although generally higher than on down days in the past several trading sessions is below average and waning; buyers do not appear to be rushing in and accumulating big positions as you would see before or shortly after a true breakout.  

Other bullish factors to consider:
 - seasonality - December remains the strongest month of the year and end-of-year rallies are common and often surprisingly strong;
 - negativity in the news - although a little toned-down in the  past few days, does anyone really think the problems in Italy, Spain, and Greece, to name a few, have just gone away?   Add to that continued malaise in the United States job market, and it's only a matter of time before some awful number or piece of bad news makes everyone panic again.  As a contrarian, negative economic and financial news is a positive.

So, we have a classic on the one hand, on the other hand situation.   I remain flat and waiting for confirmation or a pullback.  The market remains in a sell state until 128.02 (the 20-day high) is hit, and the possibility of a significant pullback before then looks high.   Stay tuned.

S&P 500 (SPY @ 124.99) gaps across short term trend line but volume unimpressive

S&P 500 (SPY @ 124.99) gaps across short term trend line then to the midpoint of its 20-day trading range on above average but unimpressive volume.



Assessment:  sell signal remains in effect, but watch closely.  Buy stop at 128.02 ( 20-day high).

S&P 500 (SPY @ 116.56) confirms downturn

S&P 500 (SPY @ 116.56) confirms downturn


The SPY confirmed 3 days ago that the trend is now down and traders should be short, investors flat.  Note that the boring old 20-day high-low system would have had you exit for a small loss this latest buy signal triggered in early October, but kept you from missing the dramatic August decline and sloppy action since then.

However, we can improve quite a bit on this simple system, as I have added little tricks and modifications over the years, a few of which I will discuss below using the chart above to illustrate.

This chart is very busy, but summarizes several key lessons and illustrates how even in a difficult market, it is possible to make money.  This is not theoretical - the trades indicated I actually took and discussed in real time in prior blog entries (long trades are indicated by heavy blue lines from entry point to exit, red lines indicate short positions, from entry to exit - rising blue lines and falling red lines are profitable).

Let's start in July with the short, slightly unprofitable trade followed by a watershed decline that was immensely profitable.  It is absolutely critical to follow the trend if you want to survive and thrive in a market such as this (or any market really although bull markets will often bail you out of many trading errors, making you look and feel smarter than you are - look out!  never confuse brains with a bull market!).  

Although our retrospectoscopes are always 20:20, there were some encouraging signs about what I have indicated as a climax low in August:
    - the market had an enormous surge in volume and had fallen 20% in 2 weeks, most of it in 1 week - never buy ONLY because a market has declined precipitously, but add that to the other pieces of evidence…
    - the huge volume indicated that most of those who wanted to sell had, and the even bigger up volume day on what turned out to be the low of the move was bullish;
    - the market failed to violate the low of this day except for a single trading session intraday in October, which turned out to be a failed breakdown, one of the most bullish signals out there, and combined with the strong up volume indicated this was a relatively low risk entry point (one could sell if the market violated either the 110 or 107.5 lows (take your pick)).   The three following strong up days confirmed this rally which took us all the way back to 130 before stalling.   Had you entered at 112.5, you would have enjoyed a  16% surge.

There were several indications however that the market was in trouble following its peak at "1":
    2 days after forming a high, it closed down sharply, then the next trading day, gapped down on heavy volume (A);
    Although this gap was "filled" meaning a close above the upper boundary of the gap, the market rally stalled at B, then at C, each of which were successively lower highs (bearish).
    Finally, at 3, the market confirmed that the trend had changed, at least for now.  
   
Vic Sperandeo, a legendary trader, has a method of simple trendline analysis that would have gotten you out at an even better price.   His definition of a trend change is a 1-2-3 process (which I have labeled on the chart):
    1.  A properly-drawn trendline (connecting all the lows for an uptrend or all the highs for a downtrend) is violated.  Since this may occur many times without a trend change, in and of itself this is not significant unless:
        - the market gaps across the trendline;
        - the volume of the gap across the trendline is very high; or
        - both.  Both conditions were present at point 1 (or A).
    2.  The market rallies but fails to make a new high.   (A variation allows the market to make a new high but then quickly reverse.)  That situation is found at point 2 (also B).
    3.  Confirmation of the change in trend occurs when the market closes below the lowest low made AFTER breaking the trendline but BEFORE the market attempted (and failed) to form a new high.  

    The easiest way to envision this is as an upside down W:

If you wait until 3, you may leave a lot of money on the table or ride out a lot more volatility than you would like, so Sperandeo advocates assuming a direction change on what he calls a "2b" meaning as soon as it appears the market has failed to make a new high, or better yet, has exceeded it by a point or two, then reversed below it.   This is difficult emotionally to do, since many true breakouts may look like 2b tops but the risk-reward profile is excellent.  You could go short and get stopped out (placing you stop just a few ticks above the high) several times and be right only once to make a lot of money.  Plus, if you are trading options, volatility for puts is often lower when the market is surging to new highs, or seems to be.  

    I got out shortly after A for the reasons listed in 1.  A market gapping down on heavy volume across an uptrend line is not a healthy market.  Had I had more patience and courage, I might have waited until the rally attempt ensued and failed, exiting closer to B, but there was a chance that the market could have simply fallen off a cliff right then and there.  
    Statistically speaking, market tops and bottoms are far more likely to resemble W's (upside down or right-side up) than Vs, meaning you are almost always better off - if you have the stomach (I often don't) - for a market appearing to change trend to approach its recent highs or lows (you can always re-enter if wrong).
    A much more sloppy, but nevertheless similar formation occurred in reverse in early October when the market briefly exceeded but did not follow through on its violation of the climax low.  I cannot count the number of times prior lows form support or turn-around points and prior highs form resistance.  No matter how much some people dismiss technical analysis as voodoo, this simple observation makes it quite clear that markets do have memory if for no other reason than markets are nothing more than the collective behavior of all of its very human participants.  
    Notice also that a similar, less sloppy 1-2-3 pattern occurred in late July when the market broke a shorter trendline (1), failed to make a new high (2) ,then crossed its recent low at 130.  After that, it was a toboggan ride down to the climax low.  
    Again, the idea is not to be perfect - no one is; I'm certainly not - only to avoid (or short) some of the market's worst declines while participating in the bulk of its biggest advances.   A buy and hold investor in the S&P 500 is down over 7% for the year (SPY closed 2010 at 125.75).  At one point, that investor would have been up 7%, at one point down over 20% from the high of the year, so it's been a wild year for those who insist markets cannot be traded.
    Anyone following a trend-following system as simple as the one I present here is in the black for the year.   Not only that, but I slept much better since I spent most of the year in cash and short-term bonds, waiting for the market to tell me what to do next.  
    There is a story unfolding written in price and volume plotted on a chart; perhaps this story remains useful because so many are convinced that it is not!
    Happy Thanksgiving - or, as they call it here in Switzerland, Thursday!

Thursday, November 17, 2011

SPY Rally seems to have failed

If the market closes below the breakout point (just below 122.5), it would confirm failure of the breakout.  Note the two recent rally attempts were turned back at successively lower highs, and down volume continues to exceed up volume (distribution). 

This is a sloppy, weak market with a lot of fundamental overhang (watch Italy closely).  Washington is a dysfunctional mess with the Know Nothings obstructing any meaningful stimulus and the crop of Republican candidates sans Romney looking like some sort of a freak show rather than the best and brightest of what such an innovative country of 300 million people could produce.  

Market rally seems to be stalling below the highs set in late October

Wednesday, November 09, 2011The S&P 500 (SPY 125.00 intraday) is continuing to act top-heavy.  Although a buy signal from 122.5 remains in place with a sell stop now at 119.12 (the 20-day low), as I indicated in my last post, I went flat - perhaps prematurely - because the market was not confirming its breakout.  
In the latest mini-rally, the market continues to show weak volume, far lower than the volume during its massive gap-down sell-off on news of a Greek referendum which although tabled for now has been eclipsed by the far greater problem of Italy's political and debt crisis.  



As always, there are some ambiguous signs, such as the ability of the market to remain (until today) in the upper half of its 20-day range, and what could be hallucinated as a wide and sloppy flag from about 122 to below 130.  Seasonality is also on our side, but little else is.  
What would change my mind?  If the market could decisively clear 130 on heavy volume preferably and remain above it for several days.  Yes, by then one would be buying at higher prices, but so what?  Had you followed the simple 20-day system, you would have been in cash or short since May (I didn't take the July buy signal which led to a small loss) and the market would have to advance substantially for a buy and hold investor to catch up with a trend-follower.

Market Alert: Cashing Out, Taking Profits, Going Flat - SPY @ 123.22 intraday

Market Alert:  Cashing Out, Taking Profits, Going Flat - SPY @ 123.22 intraday

Wed 11/2/11 6:00 pm Swiss time (GMT+1)

In a market like this, you have to be nimble.  I do not understand what is happening, but will not wait around to find out.  I can always re-enter later if I am premature, but I just cashed out, locking in profits on all positions (I closed my Euro position the day prior to the Greek referndum announcement).
Normally, I would wait for more confirmation of a change in trend, but the market's action is simply not healthy:

 - After a very healthy, robust, good volume advance last week, the S&P 500 not only stalled, but sold off just as sharply on even higher volume.   A failed signal (failure to follow through in this case on a breakout) is one of the most reliable fo all signals - although it's a little early to call this breakout a failure, we don't need to wait for the rocket to completely fall back to Earth before ejecting;
 - Downside gap was not even close to filled; volume so far today is unimpressive; this is a snapback rally, often the best chance to get out at a good price;
 - Never let a profit turn into a loss; green ink was showing on all positions before I pulled the trigger today; I would rather take a short, sweet profit than wait around and wonder what hit me;
 - Although I tend to ignore fundamentals as a rule, the Greek action is concerning (from a financial point of view); I actually agree with the protestors filling the streets of most countries that imposing austerity on the many to pay for the transgressions of a privileged, reckless few is immoral and unlikely to change the behavior of those who got us into this financial mess.  Nevertheless, it will take the financial markets a bit of time to get used to this new paradigm - expect referenda in other countries facing austerity measures.  The IMF model - punishing countries essentially for being poor and in debt by slashing their public services to the poor and retired so that wealth bankers can be made whole again - is deeply flawed but until this point has never been so bluntly challenged.   I will wait on the sidelines until this sorts itself out.  The United States was hurt not so much by a weak economy as by its complete political paralysis, held hostage by zealots who believe that slashing taxes and imposing austerity in a time of crisis is a great idea.   Now the same thing might occur in Europe with fissures between the other EU members, duct-taped over with the latest bailout package to Greece, at high risk of leading to absolutely no net effective action.   While the doctors are arguing (and some are arguing for bleeding the bad humors out of the patient and in the United States and the UK have gotten their way), the patient has hardly begun to recover.  This is not good.

S&P 500 Breakout Confirmed (SPY @ 128.60)

29 Oct 2011: There are few things as satisfying as watching patterns worked out over the years play out in real time.  After spending the week in Venice, I returned to find that re-entering the market in scale prior to our departure paid for our trip several times over:


SPY (128.60) is following through nicely on its breakout below 122.5 2 weeks ago.  Volume is heavier on up days than down days - an encouraging sign - and it is making a pattern of generally higher highs and lower lows.   The lows of the last 6 days are all above the breakout point.  
I have reached the point in life where I generally ignore fundamental news, not because it is not important but because it is so unknowable.  Markets discount the future, not the present, and most market bottoms occur when the news is bleakest and all hope seems lost.  What is commonly misunderstood as callousness on Wall Street (the capital markets rallying while unemployment remains high) is simply the smart money recognizing that the market is improving and taking positions ahead of confirmation through improvement in, among other things, a drop in unemployment.   In fact, the stock market remains one of the best leading economic indicators for that reason.
Focusing on the movement of prices and volume (technical analysis) almost exclusively is simply a recognition of some brutal market realities:
1.) most people, most of the time, are wrong;  following the crowd is
2.) financial news, especially of the breathless variety, is beyond useless - it's distracting because its objective is not to inform but to entertain; if anyone really knew what was going on, they would not be standing with a microphone on the floor of the NYSE telling you what happened at 4:00 pm, but would have acted on that information before the market opened, quietly from a yacht in the Mediterranean (and it's unlikely they would be all that interested in sharing that information with you);
3.) when the minority of players who know what is going on act, they leave telltale signs on the markets in the form of volume and price action; these signs are of greatest use when they contradict the prevailing "wisdom" propagated by financial news;
4.) most financial letter writers, active mutual funds, and other so-called experts are better salesmen than investors; they make their money from selling subscriptions or charging fees for management; few outperform a passive index.

That being said, it does not mean all market action is random or that it is impossible to beat the market averages or consistently make money in all market cycles, only that it is emotionally very hard because it requires taking positions that are unpopular, even at times insane.  Using a trend-following approach requires buying prices at relative highs after they have usually enjoyed a good rally (but often when they remain far below more distant highs), being wrong about as often as you are right (in terms of percentage of times a trade closes profitable), but making most of your money from a few trades, perhaps as few as 1 in 10.   If your losses are much smaller on your losing trades than your gains on your winning ones, you will make a very comfortable living trading and enjoy the intellectual satisfaction that good fishermen and hunters have always known (which is why I think our brains evolved to be drawn to trading).

Enough philosophy.  On to other markets:


Homebuilders also followed through on their rally on very strong up volume with much lower down volume.  A very nice chart with a 15-20% pop from the breakout a few weeks ago.  If high volatility like this makes you nervous, you can move your stop up to break-even (after commissions) or follow the 3-day low, which is often the first thing to be violated when a move is showing signs of exhaustion.  If homebuilders double from here and you are stopped out at 15-20% you may deeply regret it, but that is the tradeoff.  I would prefer to let the homebuilders run.  My sense is the economy is much, much stronger than anyone anticipates and these things have a way of turning around much quicker than anyone realizes.  Homebuilders have sold off so brutally (conventional wisdom says "everyone knows no Americans want to buy new homes and besides there is a huge backlog of foreclosed properties" but conventional wisdom and then some has long been priced into these stocks).  


The Euro is another position I took recently I consider a no-brainer.  With all the action near the top of the 20-day range and all the news about Greece and Italy so gloomy, something had to give.  The markets said buy and I did.  In the world of currencies where fortunes can be made with a 2 or 3% move, this 2% gap move up is huge (although I used the far less levered ETF here rather than futures for which I feel I am getting too old).


Switzerland mirrored Wall Street's action, performing a bit better actually over the past couple weeks.  As a side note, if you want to take a position in a country, always choose a passively-traded, liquid iShares country web rather than an actively traded closed end fund whose share prices rise and fall not just on the underlying but on anticipations about the future direction of the underlying (as well as the wisdom of the active investors).  Contrast the 10-15% pop since breakout here with the sell-off and then recover to breakeven of EWZ, for example.

As with any economic recovery, you would expect industrials to be roaring ahead and they are:

The fact that consumer staples is not doing quite as spectacularly is an indication smart money is shifting away from relatively safe plays into more economically-sensitive ones:


Technology continues to be choppy but moving in the right direction:


There is an old adage that no true bull market can exist unless led by financials.  The performance of XLF, as much as I politically detest the behavior of the Marie Antoinettes in charge of these publicly-bailed-out companies, should be encouraging then:


I missed this when on vacation, but Gold has triggered a buy signal at 165 at almost the exact price you would have exited in September to close out a profitable trade from 152:


As always, stay tuned.

Market rally continues: SPY (123.97) gaps up across resistance

Friday 10/21/11 after market close.


This chart shows SPY breaking above both its 20-day trailing high and clearing the last two relative highs in the 122.5 area.   After a choppy week in which most of the action was in the upper quartile of the 20-day range, the market gapped higher and closed at its highs for the day, all bullish.  The only caveat was that volume was only average.


I feel particularly proud of this chart.  After banging the table a couple days ago about all of the bullish features of the homebuilders (XHB), I took a position and there was very nice follow-through today, again on above-average volume.  A 4% surge with no resistance in sight is a very good sign, especially after the failed bear trap in October (a breakdown below the 20-day low without any follow-through and a quick rally off the lows.  


The Euro is doing what it is supposed to do - rallying after its breakout then consolidation after falling back into its range.  It would be nice to see it close decisively above the breakout point, however.


Switzerland also had a nice day, rising 2.76% in dollar terms (versus a 1.90% for the SPY).  Switzerland sold off quite a bit more than the United States from peak to trough (June to September - about a 30% loss), so I would expect a more spirited rise.  Switzerland is in much better fiscal shape (the government is running a surplus) and its economy is by many measures much stronger than the United States.

S&P 500 (@ 120.75) Issues Buy Signal - Proceed Cautiously

Tue 13 Oct 2011 before market open:

The S&P 500 has done something it hasn't since July - triggered a buy signal as measured by an intraday violation of the trailing 20-day high (yesterday at 121.99).  
Technically, this is all we should need, mechanically following this signal, buying at a slightly lower price if we simply entered a market order today (assuming it doesn't gap at the open above the buy level, which is unlikely but possible).  
As always with the market, however, there is a on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand quality to this buy signal.  
Positives:
Volume on up days has been improving over the past 8 trading sessions;

Volume on the first trading day of October surged higher, at which time

SPY made a low of 107.5 then closed 5% higher just below 112.5 AND

Gave a failed sell signal, making a

new relative low, then reversing and closing higher;

7 days of higher lows and higher highs in a row;
3 closes above the 50 day moving average;
5 closes in the upper half of the 20-day trading range;
Last trading signal in this direction led to a (small) loss (bullish):  although the last trading signal was a profitable short sell from 129 to 122, the last long signal generated a loss (from about 131 to 129).  Believe it or not, this is bullish, and one Turtle Trading System insists that signals only be taken if the last signal generated (taken or not) would have led to a loss.  

Negatives:
SPY was turned back at almost exactly the point where it met resistance twice before (in late September and mid-October);
Volume, although improving recently, is below average; for a true breakout, you would like to see a strong surge in volume accompanied by at or near the intraday high;
Short-term over-extended:  the market has retraced half of the distance from the 110 closing low to the 135 high set in July; markets tend to find resistance after covering 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 of the prior move (although this is a weak factor and certainly not always true).

The most likely scenario at this point is a pullback either to the 50-day (117.5) or the middle of the range (115) if not a test of the recent lows, but markets exist (or so it seems) to confound the most people most of the time, so a slog upwards from here with the market finding itself 20, 30, or 40% higher a few months from now is certainly possible.  When markets bottom, it is not pretty, and the fundamental news usually remains awful (the reasons for the buying only become evident long afterwards which is why following the money by studying the charts works so much better than following the talking heads on CNBC).  
At this point, an investor or trader true to the 20-day signal would go long at the market.  A less aggressive trader would place a high above the high of this move (122.14) which would only be triggered if the market confirmed its buy signal and moved higher.  Another way to enter the market would be to place a buy stop at the trailing 1- or 3-day high (take your pick), adjusting it every day as necessary.  That way, if the market pulls back then turns around, you will likely get in at a lower price and not have to waste time (and lose sleep) fearing that you bought at the very top of a move (a risk with any trend-following system).   Speaking of risk, there's quite a bit, over 12% if you use the 20-day low as your sell stop, 10% if you use the 20-day 110 closing low as your sell signal.

Other charts:
The dollar is pulling back with 2 unfilled down gaps after an initially impressive rally; this tends to be bearish for the stock market in the short-intermediate term:  



Of course, part of this is simply a mirror index of the Euro, which is rallying apparently in relief to the Greece bailout plan:


Anything that helps Europe will ultimately be bullish for the United States also, since the Eurozone taken as a whole is about the same size as the United States economy and one of our greatest trading partners.  

Gold has been hammered recently, gapping across its 20-day sell signal line at 165 in late September, and unable to rally up even to the bottom of the gap, much less filling it.  That buy signal, however, gave a nice run from 151 in July to 165 in September or 9% in a little over 2.5 months.


Germany is breaking out nicely with follow-through:


You would like to see better volume, however, but you had some very strong up days in September and the first trading day of October, indicating net accumulation.

If you missed the Germany Web buy signal, you could always trade the Germany Fund (more of an active ETF rather than an attempt to mirror an index) which gave a buy signal on heavy volume:  


Contrarians might keep an eye on solar energy (TAN @ 3.42) since the news out of this sector has been unrelentingly negative, distorted by a toxic political atmosphere (an attempt to highlight a failed $500 million investment in a much larger sector, an exception that does not prove the rule).   Because this ETF is so low-priced, it is not marginable and many pension and mutual funds maybe prohibited from buying it (meaning that the usual drivers of an explosive upside rally may have to stay on the sidelines), but for the individual retail investor or trader, this ETF maybe starting to get ready to rally.   I wouldn't bite here, but the fact it found support at 3 after such a brutal sell-off from 9, and on heavy volume no less, warrants close watching:


Of the sectors making up the S&P 500, only a few have triggered buy signals, notably excluding financials and energy.
Technology is a stand-out but up volume remains anemic and following the breakout yesterday, it closed at the lows of the day:


One bullish thing about technology is that it gave a recent false buy signal leading to about a 10% loss, which again is bullish, but the trading range is wide and sloppy.  

The Swiss Franc, after getting hammered, gapping down a staggering (in currency terms) 10 points from 125 to 115 in early September, has not even been able to approach the lower part of this gap and volume on down days remains much higher than on up days:


The Swiss stock market has issued a buy signal, however:  


Not for the faint of hart, the ETF that attempts to mirror the VIX (volatility index) looks as though it is approaching a sell signal after a fantastic trade was triggered at 25; if it does not gap below 41.35, then this would be a 65% profit in a little over 2 months.   The fact that volatility is settling down is settling down, or at least approaching lower end of its elevated trading range, maybe a sign that things are returning to normal, or at least that the panic levels of volatility recently seen are backing off.  

Chart Review 9/23/11 (SPY @ 112.86 before market open) - the ugliness continues.

Selected Chart Analysis:

Market Indexes (with yesterday's change and % change):

SPY    112.86          -3.77     -3.34% (short since 129, 14% open profit)

DJI      10,733.83  -391.01     -3.64%

ETFs with the lowest % risk (closest to stop loss point):

ishares 1-3 short  at 84.59.  BS @  84.74.  0.2% risk.

SPDR consumer staples long  at 29.44.  SS @  29.14.  1% risk.

UltraShort Health Care short  at 26.99.  BS @  27.4.  1.5% risk.

SPDR Consumer Discretionary long  at 35.2.  SS @  34.63.  1.6% risk.

Gold Shares Trust long  at 169.05.  SS @  165.88.  1.9% risk.

Dollar ETF long  at 22.26.  SS @  21.5.  3.5% risk.

SPDR technology long  at 23.73.  SS @  22.91.  3.6% risk.

SPDR utility long  at 33.08.  SS @  31.91.  3.7% risk.

ishares 7-10+ Treas Bond Fund long  at 106.41.  SS @  102.38.  3.9% risk.

Euro ETF short  at 134.24.  BS @  141.  5% risk.

Japan iShares short  at 9.31.  BS @  9.91.  6.4% risk.

UltraShort Consumer Services short  at 20.71.  BS @  22.1.  6.7% risk.

iShares Canada short  at 25.64.  BS @  27.5.  7.3% risk.

Swiss Helvetica short  at 11.01.  BS @  11.93.  8.4% risk.

Proshares Short Dow 30 long  at 45.36.  SS @  41.81.  8.5% risk.

Templeton Global Income Fund short  at 9.92.  BS @  10.82.  9.1% risk.

SPY short  at 112.86.  BS @  123.51.  9.4% risk.

iShares China short  at 31.53.  BS @  35.  11% risk.

UltraShort Technology       short  at 62.33.  BS @  69.36.  11.3% risk.

iShares Germany short  at 17.52.  BS @  19.5.  11.3% risk.

iShares Hong Kong short  at 14.95.  BS @  16.7.  11.7% risk.

BP short  at 35.73.  BS @  39.95.  11.8% risk.

ishares 20+ Treas Bond Fund long  at 123.12.  SS @  110.  11.9% risk.

Swiss Franc ETF short  at 108.9.  BS @  122.  12% risk.

Greatest % Declining ETFs:

Russia ETF     RSX    25.99   -2.99   -11.50%

Templeton Dragon Fund        TDF    23.25   -1.97   -8.47%

iShares Latin America ILF      38.71   -2.74   -7.08%

iShares China  FXI     31.53   -2.14   -6.79%

Templeton Emerging Markets EMF    17.01   -1.12   -6.58%

Solar Energy ETF       TAN    3.56     -0.23   -6.46%

Oil       OIL     20.24   -1.27   -6.27%

SPDR energy  XLE    59.34   -3.55   -5.98%

SPDR materials select XLB    30.29   -1.80   -5.94%

iShares Canada           EWC   25.64   -1.44   -5.62%

Thai Fund       TTF    12.32   -0.54   -4.38%

iShares Germany        EWG   17.52   -0.75   -4.28%

SPDR homebuilders    XHB   13.26   -0.55   -4.15%

iShares Hong Kong     EWH   14.95   -0.62   -4.15%

iShares Malaysia         EWM  12.10   -0.48   -3.97%

SPDR industrial select XLI     29.01   -1.13   -3.90%

iShares Singapore       EWS   11.07   -0.37   -3.34%

SPY    SPY    112.86 -3.77   -3.34%

Greatest % Increasing ETFs:

UltraShort Basic Materials      SMN   26.39   2.95     11.18%

Proshares Ultrashort China     FXP    44.20   4.61     10.43%

UltraShort Oil & Gas  DUG   39.23   3.85     9.81%

VXX   VXX   49.84   4.63     9.29%

UltraShort Health Care           RXD   26.99   2.18     8.08%

UltraShort Industrials  SIJ      62.91   4.46     7.09%

UltraShort Consumer Services           SCC    20.71   1.26     6.08%

UltraShort Technology           REW   62.33   3.71     5.95%

Proshares Ultrashort S&P 500           SDS    25.73   1.47     5.71%

UltraShort Financials   SKF    88.06   4.80     5.45%

UltraShort Semiconductors     SSG    57.81   3.15     5.45%

UltraShort Consumer Goods   SZK    26.20   1.30     4.96%

UltraShort Real Estate            SRS     17.25   0.79     4.58%

ishares 20+ Treas Bond Fund TLT    123.12 4.46     3.62%

Proshares Short Dow 30        DOG   45.36   1.52     3.35%

Dollar ETF      UUP    22.26   0.23     1.03%

ishares 7-10+ Treas Bond Fund         IEF      106.41 0.98     0.92%

ishares 1-3      SHY    84.59   0.01     0.01%