Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Markets Have Memory: Why the Gambler's Fallacy Applies to Coins, but Not Necessarily the Market


The gambler's fallacy is the name behavioral economists give to the widely held but erroneous belief that a fair coin flipped heads 2 or 3 times is more likely to come up tails on the next flip (it isn't, since each flip is statistically independent of the one prior and is always 50%).  However, markets, unlike coins, have memory because the market participants have memory.   
They know the prices they bought and the prices they would like to sell (or if short, the prices at which they would like to cover).  Plus, there are literally millions of participants all of whom have different, sometimes complimentary sometimes contradictory, objectives and time frames.  The smart money, usually large hedge funds or investors, are trying to establish or exit positions without showing their cards all at once.   But inevitably, although certainly not obviously, the charts tell a story.   What usually happens it that when a trend first changes, for whatever reason, most people refuse to admit or recognize it has actually changed.  But when certain trend lines get broken, some traders jump in and try to call a bottom (in the case of a downtrend changing).  The early ones are almost always disappointed, or perhaps exit quickly for a short, quick profit, and the market falls back to its old lows right before the breakout.  Some early investors who thought they were lucky or smart now regret their decision, promising to sell if its clear that the downtrend is resuming, which is usually at or around (or usually slightly below) the last prior low.  As all those who want to sell do, whatever main trend was causing the turnaround (usually some fundamental news or trend) becomes more obvious, and people who noticed that the market is holding at its prior lows jump in and start to buy.  This causes others who are more skeptical but missed the last rally to jump in and so on.  At each higher price level, it becomes clear that something has changed and since the market is nothing but the collective perception of all of its participant observers, something does indeed change and the market starts moving smartly higher.  This time, it may pause at the high of the last rally, but tends to hold there.  More aggressive traders add to their positions, especially as the highs are held or broken and finally as it becomes obvious to everyone that the trend has changed, many pile on, driving the market up to often twice as high as the prior rally before something - who knows what? - causes the rally to stall and often pull back.  But here's the thing:  it often pulls back to the prior HIGH not the prior LOW, and that high is often now support.  What usually follows is a zig zag pattern with the market rallying above its last relative high then selling off to form a low just above that high, until something happens that causes the rally to stall for good, forming a high that matches or slightly exceeds the last relative high, then a sell-off, then an abortive attempt to regain the old high, then the process reverses.  
Of course, no market follows this script exactly, but it's astonishing how often it does, and why awareness of this tendency does not make it disappear (as people try to game what seems an established pattern, thereby destroying it).  
The reason I believe that this pattern will continue is because the things that drive buying and selling behavior - fear and greed - have not changed and never will.  As long as human beings make markets, markets will reflect mass psychology.  This is something very few economists and precious few market commentators want to admit.  That something as important as how trillions of dollars are invested at any point in time could come down to squiggles on a chart or a gut feeling held by millions of people as their regret at having sold too early or bought too late becomes overwhelming is something that we have a lot of trouble accepting.  But if I ever hear that a market declined on fears of inflation or rose on an improved outlook from Apple, I always wonder why we accept this nonsense, as though 
  a.) there is a single reason why markets made of so many participants trading different time horizons for different objectives do anything; and 
  b.) this information so confidently reported after the closing bell was not reported (and acted upon) at the open.  
The market, we are told by talking heads, will often panic today at information it shrugged off yesterday, the day prior, and the day before that.  Why?   If the efficient market hypothesis were true and markets reacted instantaneously and more or less perfectly to knew information, what you would see is a straight line between news or data releases, then immediate jumps to new price levels as information is released, then more boring flat line.  People don't trade news, they trade how others trade the news, which is a constantly rippling feedback loop as participants become observers then participants again, changing the thing they are studying as the thing they are studying elicits certain emotions and behaviors in them.  
All of this sounds very deep and theoretical perhaps, but for me it comes down to price and volume.  The chart tells a story of buyers and sellers in a constant tug of war, each jockeying for position.   Rallies, trading ranges, and sell-offs are caused by the same human quirks that cause traffic jams and the accordion-like effect we have all been subject to as we are forced to accelerate then brake, accelerate then brake, with no "fundamental" (externally valid) reason such as an accident or construction that can come close to explaining these wild oscillations.  The only explanation can be found in our brains, in the tension between wanting to get somewhere soon (greed) versus the desire not to get into an accident (fear).  But we are not alone, and must contend with how not just the driver in front of us, whom we have never met and don't need to to be part of an intricate, elaborate feedback loop, is also reacting.   From these very simple inputs some surprisingly complex patterns, indeed all traffic and market patterns, emerge.  

S&P 500 Triggers Sell Signal

25 May 2011 (prior to market open):  The S&P 500 (SPY @ 131.95) triggered a sell signal on Monday, closing below its 20 day trailing low.  Down volume has been heavier than up volume and the longer term trend is down:



Technology (XLK @ 25.72) has also broken down, triggering a sell signal.  


Homebuilders (XHB @ 18.12):  ditto.  



The dollar is rallying and although the intermediate trend remains down, there are several bullish things to note: 
 - all the price action since mid-May has been in the upper part of its 20-day range after two thrust days up;
 - buy signal May 15 after 20 day high penetrated to the upside; 
 - 3 recent closes above the 50 day moving average.

Please note:  if you are US investor, you already by definition have all the exposure to the dollar you could ever want; I track the UUP for illustrative purposes only.




With so many sectors turning south, it should be no surprise that some short funds and ETFs have triggered buy signals.  Ultrashort Semiconductors (SSG @ 48.12) looks very bullish here for a few reasons:  
  - following a protracted down trend (meaning an uptrend in semiconductor stocks), a buy signal was given that led to a small loss - this is normal following a protracted move, and taking the second trade against the prior trend is often far more profitable than the first; 
  - excellent support at 42.95, the 20-day low;
  - Vic Sperandeo 2b bottom with broken downtrend line.

Fundamentals are favorable (meaning they are bearish for semis) with disruption of production in Japan and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity (semis go into everything from cars to computers, which are all highly cyclical).  





Real estate looks interesting after a long bull leg up, it appears poised to at least give a good trading rally down (meaning that going short real estate through SRS @ 14.63 could be a good play).


Another beautiful chart.


If you want to short the S&P 500, this is as good a vehicle as any.


 Russia is getting clobbered.

Gold is a more ambiguous chart; usually it is inversely related to the dollar but with money fleeing the Euro and all sovereign currencies (except perhaps the Swiss franc) looking shaky, gold may continue its up leg.  However, the spike high in April and very heavy volume sell-off in May will probably present resistance as sellers who did not get out then will look for opportunities to get out at better prices.  Technically, however GLD is still in a buy state without having its 20-day low violated. 


What's not to like about the Swiss Franc?  As fears of another EU bailout of Greece and probable restructuring of Greek debt rattles that currency, driving it down to the 1.23 area from above 1.5 recently versus the CHF (something I know viscerally, having just visited Paris and benefiting from my stronger "home" currency), with the United States a fiscal mess following disastrous tax cuts and ideological opposition to reversing them, as well as massive military and now stimulus spending, Switzerland, with a humming economy (with a growing trade surplus) running a very disciplined $3 billion government surplus seems the only game in town if you are looking for a rock solid place to park your money.   Some exporters and many trade unions are nervous about the high CHF which may hurt exports and therefore the Swiss economy, but so far this has not been the case, with so many Swiss products value-added ones that have very little sensitivity to currency fluctuations (as may be the case with commodities, let's say).  If you want a Swatch or a precision piece of machinery or specialty chemical, you just can't get it anywhere else.  




 The Euro has been hit hard by Greek debt problems as well as rumors that additional rounds of aid or even debt restructuring will be needed in Ireland, Portugal, or Spain.



 Japan (EWJ @ 9.98) illustrates a few things.  First:  never try to catch a falling knife (guess a bottom). When a market panics following a catastrophe, as it did following the earthquake and tsunami and nuclear disaster in March, buyers appeared as the market approached 9.40, 20% below the pre-earthquake peak above 11.60.  But the down gap was not filled (and the top of the gap formed resistance for the rally) and sellers drove the market down to the 9.70 area.
Another rally in late April looked promising and even triggered a buy signal, violating the 20 day trailing high, but it was turned back at 10.64, the same price level the abortive late March rally had failed.   The market is now in a sell state but this could change - expect lots of back-and-forth sloppy trading as people jostle to figure out how to discount Japan going forward but the fundamental news is not good and does not appear to be getting better anytime soon, and evidence that if anything the damage to the nuclear reactors was initially understated (so whatever reports are issued now should be treated with skepticism).
Usually when markets fall off a cliff like this, the technical damage takes much longer than a couple months to repair.


Another interesting short idea with terrific looking chart is the Proshares Ultrashort Oil & Gas (one of the most creatively-tickered ETFs, DUG, @ 29.52).  You have a long, broken downtrend line, all of the recent action concentrated above the broken downtrend line and the 50-day moving average and up volume heavier than down volume.  The April buy signal was false, leading to a short, small loss, which means the next buy signal, triggered in early May, is more likely statistically to be profitable.*
Stay tuned!


* Note that this is NOT a restatement of the gambler's fallacy, the belief that a fair coin flipped heads 2 or 3 times is more likely to come up tails on the next flip (it isn't, since each flip is statistically independent of the one prior and is always 50%).  However, markets, unlike coins, have memory because the market participants have memory.  Click here for more. 

Thursday, May 12, 2011

S&P 500 (SPY @ 134.44) rally looks to be topping; Gold and Euro selling off.

S&P 500 Update Wednesday May 11, 2011


After exiting prematurely in mid-March, thinking I was quite smart when the market subsequently dipped to the 125 area (on the SPY), the market then rebounded up to the 134 area, where it met resistance at its late February high then sold off, only to gap up in late April, take out the high, and march to within spitting distance of 138.
As I mentioned before the market - and any system based on following the trend of the market - tends to be smarter than I am, so overriding a system (I did not take the signal to re-buy the market in late March when it penetrated its 20-day high) is usually a bad idea.  What makes it particularly hard is watching from the sidelines as the market moves higher without you in it.   At some point, you would be tempted to jump back in at a higher price - often just in time for the market to move down and stop you out.  
This time I waited and although there are signs that the market has some underlying strength, there are also many caution signals:

    - Volume on down days has been heavier than volume on up days, although not as dramatically so as in the March distribution period and the most recent down volume was less than the up volume day of 4 trading days ago;
    -  Trend Line A from the November lows was broken and the market has been trading below an extension of this trend line;
    -  the market had a nice, solid, profitable advance from its breakout in late 2010; profitable signals tend statistically to be followed by unprofitable ones;
    - seasonality - we are now entering a relatively weak May-October period but it is a presidential pre-election year, the most bullish of the 4-year cycle;
    - failure to challenge or even match the recent high of 137.18.

Some bullish signs (nothing is ever 100%):  

    - Most of the market action is above the breakout point of 134, the prior resistance, possible support now;
    - The gap up around April 18 has not yet been filled;
    - the market trades above its 50 day and 150 day moving averages, and the former is above the latter.

So it's an ambiguous market looking vulnerable to the downside.  The system says buy though, so we should be long with a sell stop at 129.51, to be moved up soon to the 133 area…


Gold (GLD @ 146.54) looks very weak here.  Long down bars on heavy volume breaking an intermediate uptrend line, weak rally to below the halfway mark of the selloff, then apparent resumption of the downtrend.  I sold yesterday at the open.  Will probably have a better re-entry point later.   No reason to be greedy.



The Euro (FXE @ 141.49) is also under heavy pressure.   Sold yesterday at open to take advantage of 1-day counter-rally.  Same comments for gold apply to the Euro with the addition that FXE is much closer to its 20 day low which would give a non-negotiable sell signal (at 140.98), and not only were there two thrust days down but the first was on a gap with both on heavy volume.