Dogs of the Dow

Friday, January 02, 2004

Updated Dogs of the Dow results through 12/31/03:

Year:	10 Highest Yielding:	5 Lowest Priced of 10 Highest Yielding:	Dow Jones Industrial Average:	S&P 500	10 Highest Yielding:	5 Lowest Priced of 10 Highest Yielding:	Dow Jones Industrial Average:	10 Highest Yielding:	5 Lowest Priced of 10 Highest Yielding:	Dow Jones Industrial Average:
1957	-7.5%	-3.5%	-8.2%		9,247	9,651	9,183
1958	45.8%	51.8%	38.9%		13,480	14,646	12,757
1959	9.5%	14.9%	19.8%		14,764	16,833	15,287
1960	-1.5%	0.1%	-6.3%		14,550	16,855	14,325
1961	24.2%	27.1%	22.2%		18,065	21,428	17,500
1962	-0.2%	-2.7%	-7.7%		18,038	20,847	16,152
1963	22.7%	19.1%	20.1%		22,138	24,833	19,399
1964	23.1%	26.6%	18.1%		27,245	31,443	22,912
1965	20.4%	16.4%	14.5%		32,808	36,591	26,223
1966	-15.7%	-18.5%	-16.0%		27,670	29,832	22,030
1967	26.9%	36.4%	19.3%		35,103	40,691	26,273	14.3%	15.5%	11.1%
1968	13.1%	10.5%	7.6%		39,704	44,968	28,269	11.4%	11.9%	8.3%
1969	-12.8%	-8.3%	-11.9%		34,630	41,258	24,905	8.9%	9.4%	5.0%
1970	3.5%	-8.9%	9.1%		35,835	37,586	27,172	9.4%	8.4%	6.6%
1971	5.8%	11.8%	9.9%		37,896	42,036	29,862	7.7%	7.0%	5.5%
1972	23.9%	22.1%	18.1%		46,934	51,331	35,267	10.0%	9.4%	8.1%
1973	3.9%	11.5%	-13.4%		48,755	57,213	30,541	8.2%	8.7%	4.6%
1974	1.0%	-3.4%	-23.4%		49,252	55,291	23,394	6.1%	5.8%	0.2%
1975	53.2%	62.9%	44.4%		75,470	90,069	33,781	8.7%	9.4%	2.6%
1976	33.2%	38.5%	22.3%		100,533	124,754	41,315	13.8%	15.4%	6.5%
1977	-1.0%	1.3%	-13.2%		99,497	126,426	35,861	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%
1978	2.4%	4.1%	2.4%		101,885	131,584	36,722	9.9%	11.3%	2.7%
1979	9.7%	5.7%	10.2%		111,738	139,098	40,467	12.4%	12.9%	5.0%
1980	27.5%	37.1%	21.0%		142,499	190,731	48,966	14.8%	17.6%	6.1%
1981	2.7%	-1.3%	-3.6%		146,318	188,328	47,203	14.5%	16.2%	4.7%
1982	20.7%	27.0%	26.0%		176,577	239,101	59,475	14.2%	16.6%	5.4%
1983	39.2%	36.8%	25.5%		245,830	327,018	74,642	17.6%	19.0%	9.3%
1984	7.6%	11.0%	0.7%		264,513	363,056	75,172	18.3%	20.7%	12.4%
1985	29.5%	39.7%	31.1%		342,544	507,189	98,580	16.3%	18.9%	11.3%
1986	32.1%	24.1%	26.6%		452,501	629,218	124,802	16.2%	17.6%	11.7%
1987	6.1%	11.1%	5.8%		480,104	698,936	132,041	17.0%	18.6%	13.9%
1988	26.1%	15.6%	15.6%		605,411	808,109	152,573	19.5%	19.9%	15.3%
1989	26.5%	12.3%	30.8%		765,845	907,668	199,490	21.2%	20.6%	17.3%
1990	-7.6%	-17.3%	-3.4%		707,640	750,279	192,787	17.4%	14.7%	14.7%
1991	34.3%	61.8%	23.9%		950,361	1,213,876	238,863	20.6%	20.5%	17.6%
1992	7.9%	26.3%	7.4%		1,025,440	1,532,518	256,539	19.2%	20.4%	15.7%
1993	27.3%	35.7%	16.8%		1,305,385	2,079,934	299,637	18.2%	20.3%	14.9%
1994	4.1%	8.6%	4.9%		1,358,906	2,258,808	314,319	17.8%	20.1%	15.4%
1995	39.0%	30.1%	36.4%		1,888,879	2,938,258	428,826	18.6%	19.2%	15.8%
1996	27.5%	25.5%	28.3%	22.9%	2,408,321	3,687,514	550,141	18.2%	19.3%	16.0%
1997	22.2%	20.9%	24.8%	33.3%	2,942,968	4,458,204	686,576	19.9%	20.4%	17.9%
1998	10.7%	12.5%	18.1%	28.6%	3,257,865	5,015,480	810,846	18.3%	20.0%	18.2%
1999	4.0%	-5.0%	27.2%	21.1%	3,388,180	4,764,706	1,031,396	16.0%	18.0%	17.9%
2000	2.7%	7.1%	-6.2%	-9.1%	3,479,661	5,103,000	967,450	17.3%	21.1%	17.5%
2001	6.4%	-7.8%	-7.1%	-11.9%	3,702,359	4,704,966	898,761	14.6%	14.5%	14.2%
2002	-12.2%	-14.0%	-16.8%	-22.8%	3,250,671	4,046,271	747,769	12.2%	10.2%	11.3%
2003	23.6%	18.7%	27.8%	28.6%	4,017,830	4,802,923	955,425	11.9%	8.7%	12.3%

Bottom line: The Dogs of the Dow, particularly the 5 Lowest Priced, no longer outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 10 years (8.7% 5LP versus 11.9% for 10 highest yielding, versus 12.3% Dow Jones Industrial Average).

However, the strategies did not fail per se, since they had high average annual returns (11.9% for the 10 highest yielding.

Dow Jones High Yielders
History:
per 1999 Stock Traders Almanac

1973-1997:
Total: Annual:
DJIA 2,042% 13.0%
10 Hiest Yldg: 6,558% 18.3%
- 5 lowest P'd: 11,813% 21.1%
- 2nd lowest P: 35,402% 26.5%

by yr:
DJIA 10HY 5LP
95 36.43 36.44 30.08 => 21.04% avge ann rr 76-95
94 4.9% 4.1% 8.6% => 325% cumulative 89 -> 12/95
93 16.8 27.3 35.72
92 7.4 7.9 26.25
91 23.9 34.3 61.79
90 -0.4 -7.6 -15.27
89 31.7 26.5 10.49
88 16.0 26.1 21.22
87 6.0 6.1 11.06
86 26.9 32.1 30.31
85 32.8 29.5 37.84
84 1.1 7.6 10.88

Michael O'Higgins 73-93:

Total: Annual:
DJIA 828% 11.2%
10 Hiest Yldg: 2,870% 17.5%
- 5 lowest P'd: 5,576% 21.2%
- 2nd lowest P: 23,815% 29.9%


Dow Jones High Yielders
5 Lowest Priced of 10 Hiest Ylders:

Yld:10/13
-> +15.05% 4/96
6.33% 2-5
10.74% 5HP

IP 2.6 38.0
CHV 4.1 49.0
MMM 3.3 56.8
EastK 2.8 57.3
GE 2.6 63.0

10 Highest Ylders:

Texac 4.8 67.0
PhilM 4.7 85.3
* CHV 4.1 49.0
XON 4.0 74.8
Morga 3.7 81.3
* MMM 3.3 56.8
DuPon 3.1 66.1
* EastK 2.8 57.3
* GE 2.6 63.0
* IP 2.6 38.0

The Rest:
GM 2.6 46.3
S 2.6 35.4
Goody 2.5 39.9
CAT 2.5 55.5
Wool 2.4 90.0
Merck 2.3 59.9
UtdTe 2.3 87.4
ATT 2.1 62.4
AXP 2.0 44.8
ProcG 2.0 80.3
UnCar 1.9 39.4
Allie 1.8 44.5
Alcoa 1.7 51.6
Boein 1.5 67.5
Westi 1.4 14.8
KO 1.2 70.9
IBM 1.1 92.5
McD 0.7 39.8
DIS 0.6 57.5
Beth 0.0 13.6


Dogs of the Dow: 10 Hiest
Dogs: 10 Highest Yielding, 12/31/97
MO 45.25 3.54% *
JPM 113 3.37%
GM 60.75 3.29% *
CHV 77.0 3.01%
EK 60.5 2.91% *
XON 61.2 2.68%
MMM 82.1 2.58%
IP 53.9 1.9% *
T 61.4 2.15%
DD 60.1 2.10% *



Dogs of the Dow: 5LP
5 Lowest Priced of 10 Highest, 9/26/97

T 45.4 2.9%
UC 47.8 1.9%
IP 53.9 1.9%
DD 63.1 2.0%
EK 64.0 2.7%
XON 64.3 2.6%
GM 66.0 3.0%
CHV 83.0 2.8%
MMM 90.4 2.3%
JPM 114 3.1%
CAT 54.0 1.8%
MRK 100 1.8%
Goodyr 67.8 1.7%
S 57.0 1.6%
JNJ 57.6 1.5%
GE 68.3 1.5%
PG 69.4 1.5%
UTX 82.4 1.5%
Allied 41.5 1.3%
Alcoa 80.3 1.2%
AXP 81.6 1.1%
BA 54.5 1.0%
KO 61.9 0.9%
Trav 69.2 0.9%
HWP 71.3 0.8%
IBM 103 0.8%
MCD 47.6 0.7%
DIS 79.5 0.7%
WMT 36.3 0.5%




Dogs of the Dow: Historical
5LP S&P
92 32.0% 7.6
93 36.7 10.0
94 8.2 1.4
95 31.7 37.5
96 26.4 22.9
97 20.9 33.4
98 19.3* 26.7 => *my calc; website = 12.2% =
9.4 + 2.8


cumulative:

5LP S&P
92 32.0% 7.6
93 80.4 18.8
94 95.2 20.5
95 157.1 65.6
96 225.0 103.6
97 292.9 171.4
98 341.3 210.0* as of 4/25, no div included


Dogs of the Dow: stocks
99 dd gt mo cat ip
98 mo ek t ip gm
97 chv t gm ip mmm
96 chv dd mmm ip ek
95 chv z s ek mmm
94 z dd uk ek mrk
93 westinghouse gm ek uk axp
92 westinghouse gm s uk axp
91 gt s ald uk westinghouse
90 gm s allied sig ek uk
89 allied sig xon s usx ek
88 uk primerica allied sig t utx
87 tx union carbide usx t allied-signal
86 tx chv gt t s
85 union carbide tx chv t gt
84 xon tx standard oil of ca amer can z
83 xon tx amer can standard oil of ca z
82 johns-manville z xon amer can alum co
81 s johns-manv gt general foods z
80 gt usx johns-man tx s
79 texas corp gt esmark johns manville usx
78 c z gt tx intl harv
77 tx amer can intl harv westing esmark
76 tx intl harv westingho standard oil ca intl nickel
75 c z westinghouse intl harv gt
74 c united aircraft amer can z union carbide
73 amer can gen foods usx allied chem beth steel
72 amer can united aircraft usx intl harv tx
71 anaconda beth steel usx intl harvester allied chem