spx % off 12 Week High Versus Next 4 Week % Change

% off 12 Week High Versus Next 4 Week % Change:

The percent the S&P 500 has fallen from its trailing 12 week high is a poor predictor of future returns with a positive, not an inverse, relationship.

	Summary Statistics:
	% off 12-week high	next 4 week % change
n:	384	384
Max:	0.0%	14.9%
Min:	-27.1%	-16.9%
Average:	-4.2%	0.6%
Median:	-2.9%	0.9%
	y = .95%x + 0.62%			R2 = .0%
	correlation:	0.9%
Sliced data:			% off 12-week high
		n:	From:	To:	next 4 week % change
	Min-10%	39	-27.1%	-9.6%	0.7%
	10-25%	57	-9.6%	-5.9%	0.7%
	25-50%	96	-5.9%	-2.9%	0.6%
	50-75%	96	-2.9%	-1.4%	0.7%
	75-90%	57	-1.4%	-0.5%	0.3%
	90-Max	39	-0.5%	0.0%	1.0%
		384
In fourths:			% off 12-week high
		n:	From:	To:	next 4 week % change
	Min-25%	96	-27.1%	-5.9%	0.7%
	25-50%	96	-5.9%	-2.9%	0.4%
	50-75%	96	-2.9%	-1.4%	0.7%
	75-Max	96	-1.4%	0.0%	0.6%
		384
In thirds:			% off 12-week high
		n:	From:	To:	next 4 week % change
	Bottom	127	-27.1%	-4.3%	0.3%
	Middle	126	-4.3%	-1.9%	0.9%
	Top	131	-1.9%	0.0%	0.5%
		384