spx Christmas

The Santa Claus Rally
The 2000 Stock Trader's Almanac Santa Claus used to come to Wall Street nearly every year, bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year (four prior to 1969) and the first two in January. This was good for an average 1.6% gain. In the 38 years prior to 1990, the period was down seven times and eked out sub-par gains (0.8% or less) six times. But in the last nine years of a giant bull market, in only four did Santa bring juicy rallies. Scrooge came in his place on the other five occasions.
DAILY % CHANGE IN S&P COMPOSITE INDEX AT YEAR END

Trading Days Before Year-End First Days in January Rally % Change 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 1952 – 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 – 0.1 – 0.1 0.5 – 0.7 1.7 1953 – 0.3 0.4 – 0.4 – 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.2 1954 0.1 – 0.8 1.0 0.9 N/C 0.7 2.1 – 0.9 – 2.5 3.8 1955 0.2 0.2 – 0.6 – 0.4 0.2 0.7 – 0.7 – 0.4 – 0.1 – 1.1 1956 – 0.8 0.7 0.04 – 0.1 0.5 0.2 – 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.5 1957 N/C 0.1 1.0 – 0.4 – 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.3 – 0.5 3.4 1958 – 0.7 – 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 – 0.1 4.2 1959 – 0.3 0.1 – 0.03 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.03 0.8 – 0.4 2.4 1960 – 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 – 0.9 1.4 0.4 1.6 1961 – 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.1 – 0.2 – 0.8 0.2 – 0.7 0.3 1962 – 0.3 – 0.02 0.6 – 0.1 0.05 0.2 – 0.6 1.6 0.6 1.7 1963 – 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 2.1 1964 – 0.2 N/C – 0.1 – 0.3 0.6 0.5 – 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 1965 – 0.1 – 0.7 0.01 0.3 0.4 0.2 – 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.8 1966 0.4 – 0.3 – 0.6 – 0.5 – 0.3 – 0.05 0.1 0.2 1.3 – 1.1 1967 0.2 – 0.2 0.1 0.7 – 0.02 0.6 – 0.4 – 0.5 – 0.3 0.5 1968 – 1.1 – 0.2 0.1 – 0.4 – 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 – 1.5 – 1.0 1969 – 0.4 1.1 0.8 – 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.5 – 0.7 3.6** 1970 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.2 – 0.1 – 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.9 1971 – 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.3 – 0.4 0.3 – 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.3 1972 – 0.3 – 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 – 0.1 3.1 1973 – 1.1 – 0.7 3.1 2.1 – 0.2 0.01 0.1 2.2 – 0.9 6.7 1974 – 1.4 1.4 0.8 – 0.4 0.03 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.5 7.2 1975 0.7 0.8 0.9 – 0.1 – 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.0 4.3 1976 0.1 1.2 0.7 – 0.4 0.5 0.5 – 0.4 – 1.2 – 0.9 0.8 1977 0.8 0.9 N/C 0.1 0.2 0.2 – 1.3 – 0.3 – 0.8 – 0.3 1978 0.03 1.7 1.3 – 0.9 – 0.4 – 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 3.3 1979 – 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 – 0.1 0.1 – 2.0 – 0.5 1.2 – 2.2 1980 – 0.4 0.4 0.5 – 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.1 2.0 1981 – 0.5 0.2 – 0.2 – 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 – 2.2 – 0.7 – 1.8 1982 0.6 1.8 – 1.0 0.3 – 0.7 0.2 – 1.6 2.2 0.4 1.2 1983 – 0.2 – 0.03 0.9 0.3 – 0.2 0.05 – 0.5 1.7 1.2 2.1 1984 – 0.5 0.8 – 0.2 – 0.4 0.3 0.6 – 1.1 – 0.5 – 0.5 – 0.6 1985 – 1.1 – 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 – 0.8 0.6 – 0.1 1.1 1986 – 1.0 0.2 0.1 – 0.9 – 0.5 – 0.5 1.8 2.3 0.2 2.4 1987 1.3 – 0.5 – 2.6 – 0.4 1.3 – 0.3 3.6 1.1 0.1 2.2 1988 – 0.2 0.3 – 0.4 0.1 0.8 – 0.6 – 0.9 1.5 0.2 0.9 1989 0.6 0.8 – 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.8 – 0.3 – 0.9 4.1 1990 0.5 – 0.6 0.3 – 0.8 0.1 0.5 – 1.1 – 1.4 – 0.3 – 3.0 1991 2.5 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.1 0.5 0.04 0.5 – 0.3 5.7 1992 – 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 – 0.3 0.2 – 0.7 – 0.1 – 0.2 0.04 – 1.1 1993 0.01 0.7 0.1 – 0.1 – 0.4 – 0.5 – 0.2 0.3 0.1 – 0.1 1994 0.01 0.2 0.4 – 0.3 0.1 – 0.4 – 0.03 0.3 – 0.1 0.2 1995 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.04 – 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 – 0.6 1.8 1996 – 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.1 – 0.4 – 1.7 – 0.5 1.5 – 0.1 0.1 1997 – 1.5 – 0.7 0.4 1.8 1.8 – 0.04 0.5 0.2 – 1.1 4.0 1998 2.1 – 0.2 – 0.1 1.3 – 0.8 – 0.2 – 0.1 1.4 2.2 1.3 Avg – 0.10 0.36* 0.29 0.12 0.2 0.2 0.04 0.49 – 0.03 1.6 *From 1969 to date **Seven days Average 7-Day Gain 1.7%

Santa’s failure to show usually preceded bear markets or times stocks could be purchased at much lower prices later in the new year. Only 1966, 1984, 1992, and 1994 were in error, and 1990 has to be excluded as Saddam Hussein cancelled Christmas by invading Kuwait in August.