Real Stock Market Average Annual Returns, 1871-2001:
Take Heart! There has never been a 30-year losing period even after inflation in stocks. What follows are the geometric, after-inflation average total stock returns over each of the following rolling periods from 1871 through February, 2001:
| 5 Years: | 10 Years: | 20 Years: | 30 Years: | ||
| n: | 1,552 | 1,504 | 1,444 | 1,324 | 1,204 |
| Max: | 150.5% | 33.2% | 19.9% | 13.7% | 11.1% |
| 90th percentile | 32.8% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% |
| 75th percentile | 21.6% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% |
| 50th percentile | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| 25th percentile | -3.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% |
| 10th percentile | -14.3% | -2.9% | -0.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% |
| Min: | -57.7% | -13.0% | -4.6% | -0.2% | 1.9% |
| Median: | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Average: | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% |
| % Up: | 68.2% | 83.6% | 88.9% | 99.9% | 100.0% |
Source: Stock Market Data Used in "Irrational Exuberance"
Robert J. Shiller, 2000
Patched together with additional data and adjusted for inflation by Mark Vakkur, 2001
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